Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC PREDICTION
SLC Fri 17 Jul, 13:00 UK · in 2d1X2 · Shanghai SIPG FCModel behind market recent
Market
2.55
price
39.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.58
fair price
38.7%
fair prob
Our model
1.98
model fair price
50.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 39%model 51%
Model divergence +11.9 pts
Edge vs fair -1.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Yunnan Yukun
26%
Draw
24%
Shanghai SIPG FC
51%
market fair (devig · sharp): 37% / 24% / 39%
Expected goals (λ)
1.455 — 2.077
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Shanghai SIPG FC 51% against the market’s fair 39% — a +11.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.455–2.077 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Yunnan Yukun 20% · Shanghai SIPG FC 39% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Super League - China fixtures
Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FCBeijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FCHenan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FCChongqing Tonglianglong FC v ZhejiangDalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FCShanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Yunnan Yukun play Shanghai SIPG FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 13:00 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC?
The statistical model prices Yunnan Yukun at 26%, the draw at 24% and Shanghai SIPG FC at 51%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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