Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
SLC1X2 · Shanghai Shenhua FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.43
price
69.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.49
fair price
67.2%
fair prob
Our model
1.77
model fair price
56.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 67%model 56%
Model divergence -10.8 pts
Edge vs fair -3.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Shanghai Shenhua FC
56%
Draw
25%
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
18%
market fair (devig · sharp): 67% / 19% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.861 — 0.985
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Shanghai Shenhua FC 56% against the market’s fair 67% — a -10.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.861–0.985 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Shanghai Shenhua FC 40% · Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shenhua FC | 56.4% | 1.49 | 1.43 | -3.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 5.24 | 5.00 | -4.5% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC | 18.3% | 7.25 | 6.50 | -10.3% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Shanghai Shenhua FC | Draw | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred (UK) | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.55 | 6.10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.42 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Betway | 1.38 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.38 | 4.35 | 6.10 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.38 | 4.35 | 6.10 |
| Grosvenor | 1.43 | 4.50 | 6.40 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.40 / 4.93 / 6.83 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Shanghai Shenhua FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Shanghai Shenhua FCFair line (devig) — Shanghai Shenhua FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Shanghai Shenhua FC
DLDLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.83 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | A v Qingdao West Coast | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Wuhan Three Towns | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Yunnan Yukun | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-09 | H v Chongqing Tonglianglong | 2-2 | D |
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
WDLLDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | H v Dalian Yingbo | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Shanghai Port | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-19 | H v Henan Songshan Longmen | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | H v Chengdu Rongcheng | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Zhejiang Professional | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger v Shanghai Shenhua | 2-3 | China Super League |
| 2025-11-22 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger v Shanghai Shenhua | 1-3 | China Super League |
| 2025-06-25 | Shanghai Shenhua v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 3-0 | China Super League |
| 2024-09-21 | Shanghai Shenhua v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 2-1 | China Super League |
| 2024-05-11 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger v Shanghai Shenhua | 0-0 | China Super League |
| 2023-10-29 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger v Shanghai Shenhua | 1-1 | China Super League |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Shanghai Shenhua FC
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Super League - China
More Super League - China fixtures
Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FCBeijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FCHenan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FCYunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FCChongqing Tonglianglong FC v ZhejiangDalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Shanghai Shenhua FC play Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 12:35 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC?
The statistical model prices Shanghai Shenhua FC at 56%, the draw at 25% and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC at 18%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.49 / 5.24 / 7.25 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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