Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang

SLC Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK · in 3d Ask the analyst

1X2 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FCModel behind market recent

Market

2.70

price

37.0%

implied · incl. margin

Fair · devigged · sharp

2.93

fair price

34.1%

fair prob

Our model

2.18

model fair price

45.8%

model prob · D-C + ELO

market fair 34%model 46%

Model divergence +11.7 pts Edge vs fair -7.9% 12 books priced

Model · 1X2

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

46%

Draw

27%

Zhejiang

27%

market fair (devig · sharp): 34% / 27% / 39%

Expected goals (λ)

1.7 — 1.278

Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1

Engine confidence

unscored — outside the engine’s scan window

Model prices Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 46% against the market’s fair 34% — a +11.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.

Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 32% · Zhejiang 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.

No grounded brief yet

Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.

Outcome	Model prob	Fair odds (sharp, devigged)	Best price	Edge vs fair
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC	45.8%	2.93	2.70	-7.9%
Draw	26.8%	3.72	3.60	-3.2%
Zhejiang	27.4%	2.56	2.63	+2.6%

Totals (2.5 goals line)

Over: 1.65 · Under: 2.15 — best captured prices.

Bookmaker board — who holds each price

Book	Chongqing Tonglianglong FC	Draw	Zhejiang
LeoVegas	2.60	3.40	2.40
Unibet (UK)	2.65	3.50	2.45
Betfred (UK)	2.50	3.50	2.50
Paddy Power	2.50	3.50	2.50
888sport	2.70	3.30	2.40
William Hill	2.70	3.30	2.40
Betway	2.70	3.40	2.38
Betfair Sportsbook	2.50	3.60	2.50
LiveScore Bet	2.35	3.40	2.55
Grosvenor	2.43	3.50	2.63
Virgin Bet	2.35	3.40	2.55
Bet Victor	2.60	3.50	2.38

Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.

Sharp reference (raw): 2.78 / 3.53 / 2.43 — the line our fair odds devig from.

Odds movement

1X2 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC — best price vs devigged fair line

Best price — Chongqing Tonglianglong FCFair line (devig) — Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

LWDLDD

Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%

Date	Match	Score
2026-05-30	H v Beijing Guoan	2-3	L
2026-05-24	A v Qingdao Hainiu	1-0	W
2026-05-20	H v Yunnan Yukun	0-0	D
2026-05-16	A v Shandong Taishan	1-3	L
2026-05-09	A v Shanghai Shenhua	2-2	D

Zhejiang

Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%

Date	Match	Score
2026-07-14	H v Qingdao Hainiu FC	3-2	W

No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.

All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.

No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.

No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.

Prediction Odds & fair line Head-to-head Chongqing Tonglianglong FC Zhejiang Super League - China

More Super League - China fixtures

Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

Frequently asked questions

When do Chongqing Tonglianglong FC play Zhejiang?

Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK time in the Super League - China.

What does the model expect for Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang?

The statistical model prices Chongqing Tonglianglong FC at 46%, the draw at 27% and Zhejiang at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.

What are the fair odds for Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang?

Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.93 / 3.72 / 2.56 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.

Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.

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