Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
SLC1X2 · Dalian YingboModel behind market recent
Market
2.20
price
45.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.36
fair price
42.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 42%model 46%
Model divergence +3.5 pts
Edge vs fair -6.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Dalian Yingbo
46%
Draw
27%
Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 42% / 25% / 33%
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Dalian Yingbo 46% against the market’s fair 42% — a +3.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Dalian Yingbo 32% · Shandong Luneng Taishan FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Yingbo | 45.8% | 2.36 | 2.20 | -6.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 4.02 | 3.90 | -2.9% |
| Shandong Luneng Taishan FC | 27.4% | 3.05 | 2.90 | -4.9% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Dalian Yingbo | Draw | Shandong Luneng Taishan FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred (UK) | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.75 |
| Paddy Power | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betway | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.75 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| Grosvenor | 2.15 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.08 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| Bet Victor | 2.15 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.24 / 3.81 / 2.89 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Dalian Yingbo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Dalian YingboFair line (devig) — Dalian Yingbo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Dalian Yingbo
LWDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 1.33
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Chengdu Rongcheng | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-19 | A v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-15 | H v Qingdao West Coast | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | A v Qingdao Hainiu | 1-3 | L |
Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Dalian Yingbo
Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
Super League - China
More Super League - China fixtures
Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FCBeijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FCHenan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FCYunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FCChongqing Tonglianglong FC v ZhejiangShanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Dalian Yingbo play Shandong Luneng Taishan FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 12:35 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC?
The statistical model prices Dalian Yingbo at 46%, the draw at 27% and Shandong Luneng Taishan FC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.36 / 4.02 / 3.05 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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