Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC PREDICTION
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 12:35 UK · in 3d1X2 · Dalian YingboModel behind market recent
Market
2.20
price
45.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.36
fair price
42.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 42%model 46%
Model divergence +3.5 pts
Edge vs fair -6.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Dalian Yingbo
46%
Draw
27%
Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 42% / 25% / 33%
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Dalian Yingbo 46% against the market’s fair 42% — a +3.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Dalian Yingbo 32% · Shandong Luneng Taishan FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Dalian Yingbo
Shandong Luneng Taishan FC
Super League - China
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Frequently asked questions
When do Dalian Yingbo play Shandong Luneng Taishan FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 12:35 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC?
The statistical model prices Dalian Yingbo at 46%, the draw at 27% and Shandong Luneng Taishan FC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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