Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang PREDICTION
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK · in 3d1X2 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FCModel behind market recent
Market
2.70
price
37.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.93
fair price
34.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 34%model 46%
Model divergence +11.7 pts
Edge vs fair -7.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
46%
Draw
27%
Zhejiang
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 34% / 27% / 39%
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 46% against the market’s fair 34% — a +11.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 32% · Zhejiang 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Zhejiang
Super League - China
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Frequently asked questions
When do Chongqing Tonglianglong FC play Zhejiang?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 12:00 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang?
The statistical model prices Chongqing Tonglianglong FC at 46%, the draw at 27% and Zhejiang at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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