Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC PREDICTION
SLC Sat 18 Jul, 12:35 UK · in 2d1X2 · Shanghai Shenhua FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.43
price
69.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.49
fair price
67.2%
fair prob
Our model
1.77
model fair price
56.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 67%model 56%
Model divergence -10.8 pts
Edge vs fair -3.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Shanghai Shenhua FC
56%
Draw
25%
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
18%
market fair (devig · sharp): 67% / 19% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.861 — 0.985
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Shanghai Shenhua FC 56% against the market’s fair 67% — a -10.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.861–0.985 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Shanghai Shenhua FC 40% · Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Shanghai Shenhua FC
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Super League - China
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Frequently asked questions
When do Shanghai Shenhua FC play Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 12:35 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC?
The statistical model prices Shanghai Shenhua FC at 56%, the draw at 25% and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC at 18%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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