Colo Colo v Deportes Limache
PDC1X2 · Colo ColoModel behind market recent
Market
1.40
price
71.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.51
fair price
66.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 66%model 45%
Model divergence -21.2 pts
Edge vs fair -7.3%
5 books priced
Model · 1X2
Colo Colo
45%
Draw
29%
Deportes Limache
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 66% / 20% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Colo Colo 45% against the market’s fair 66% — a -21.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Colo Colo 29% · Deportes Limache 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colo Colo | 45.0% | 1.51 | 1.40 | -7.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.13 | 4.75 | -7.4% |
| Deportes Limache | 26.1% | 6.99 | 6.50 | -7.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Colo Colo | Draw | Deportes Limache |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.33 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Colo Colo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Colo ColoFair line (devig) — Colo Colo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Colo Colo
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Deportes Limache
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Chile fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Colo Colo play Deportes Limache?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Colo Colo v Deportes Limache?
The statistical model prices Colo Colo at 45%, the draw at 29% and Deportes Limache at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Colo Colo v Deportes Limache?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.51 / 5.13 / 6.99 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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