Union La Calera v Everton de Viña del Mar
PDC1X2 · Union La CaleraModel behind market recent
Market
2.63
price
38.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.90
fair price
34.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 35%model 45%
Model divergence +10.5 pts
Edge vs fair -9.3%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Union La Calera
45%
Draw
29%
Everton de Viña del Mar
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 35% / 29% / 36%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Union La Calera 45% against the market’s fair 35% — a +10.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Union La Calera 30% · Everton de Viña del Mar 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera | 45.0% | 2.90 | 2.63 | -9.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.41 | 3.10 | -9.2% |
| Everton de Viña del Mar | 26.1% | 2.75 | 2.50 | -9.3% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Union La Calera | Draw | Everton de Viña del Mar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Paddy Power | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| 888sport | 2.62 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| Smarkets | 2.48 | 2.98 | 2.34 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Union La Calera — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Union La CaleraFair line (devig) — Union La Calera
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Union La Calera
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Coquimbo Unido | 1-0 | W |
Everton de Viña del Mar
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Union La Calera
Everton de Viña del Mar
Primera División - Chile
More Primera División - Chile fixtures
Colo Colo v Deportes LimacheCoquimbo Unido v Universidad de ConcepciónHuachipato v CobresalUniversidad Católica (CHI) v La SerenaÑublense v PalestinoAudax Italiano v Universidad de Chile
Frequently asked questions
When do Union La Calera play Everton de Viña del Mar?
Kick-off is Fri 24 Jul, 23:00 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Union La Calera v Everton de Viña del Mar?
The statistical model prices Union La Calera at 45%, the draw at 29% and Everton de Viña del Mar at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Union La Calera v Everton de Viña del Mar?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.90 / 3.41 / 2.75 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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