Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Concepción
PDC1X2 · Coquimbo UnidoModel behind market recent
Market
1.44
price
69.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.59
fair price
62.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 63%model 45%
Model divergence -17.8 pts
Edge vs fair -9.6%
5 books priced
Model · 1X2
Coquimbo Unido
45%
Draw
29%
Universidad de Concepción
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 63% / 22% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Coquimbo Unido 45% against the market’s fair 63% — a -17.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Coquimbo Unido 29% · Universidad de Concepción 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coquimbo Unido | 45.0% | 1.59 | 1.44 | -9.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.65 | 4.20 | -9.7% |
| Universidad de Concepción | 26.1% | 6.37 | 5.75 | -9.7% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Coquimbo Unido | Draw | Universidad de Concepción |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.44 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 3.90 | 5.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Coquimbo Unido — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Coquimbo UnidoFair line (devig) — Coquimbo Unido
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Coquimbo Unido
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Union La Calera | 0-1 | L |
Universidad de Concepción
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Coquimbo Unido
Universidad de Concepción
Primera División - Chile
More Primera División - Chile fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Coquimbo Unido play Universidad de Concepción?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Concepción?
The statistical model prices Coquimbo Unido at 45%, the draw at 29% and Universidad de Concepción at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Concepción?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.59 / 4.65 / 6.37 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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