Huachipato v Cobresal
PDC1X2 · HuachipatoModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.79
fair price
55.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 45%
Model divergence -10.8 pts
Edge vs fair -6.8%
5 books priced
Model · 1X2
Huachipato
45%
Draw
29%
Cobresal
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 56% / 25% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Huachipato 45% against the market’s fair 56% — a -10.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Huachipato 29% · Cobresal 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huachipato | 45.0% | 1.79 | 1.67 | -6.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.08 | 3.80 | -6.9% |
| Cobresal | 26.1% | 5.10 | 4.75 | -6.9% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Huachipato | Draw | Cobresal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.57 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Huachipato — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — HuachipatoFair line (devig) — Huachipato
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Huachipato
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Deportes Temuco | 1-0 | W |
Cobresal
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Antofagasta | 0-1 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Chile fixtures
Union La Calera v Everton de Viña del MarColo Colo v Deportes LimacheCoquimbo Unido v Universidad de ConcepciónUniversidad Católica (CHI) v La SerenaÑublense v PalestinoAudax Italiano v Universidad de Chile
Frequently asked questions
When do Huachipato play Cobresal?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 22:30 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Huachipato v Cobresal?
The statistical model prices Huachipato at 45%, the draw at 29% and Cobresal at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Huachipato v Cobresal?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.79 / 4.08 / 5.10 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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