Huachipato v Cobresal PREDICTION
PDC Sat 25 Jul, 22:30 UK · in 11d1X2 · HuachipatoModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.79
fair price
55.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 45%
Model divergence -10.8 pts
Edge vs fair -6.8%
5 books priced
Model · 1X2
Huachipato
45%
Draw
29%
Cobresal
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 56% / 25% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Huachipato 45% against the market’s fair 56% — a -10.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Huachipato 29% · Cobresal 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Huachipato play Cobresal?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 22:30 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Huachipato v Cobresal?
The statistical model prices Huachipato at 45%, the draw at 29% and Cobresal at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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