Universidad Católica (CHI) v La Serena
PDC1X2 · Universidad Católica (CHI)Model behind market recent
Market
1.33
price
75.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.47
fair price
68.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 68%model 45%
Model divergence -23 pts
Edge vs fair -9.6%
5 books priced
Model · 1X2
Universidad Católica (CHI)
45%
Draw
29%
La Serena
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 68% / 19% / 13%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Universidad Católica (CHI) 45% against the market’s fair 68% — a -23 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 3°C · rain 0 mm · wind 1.7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Universidad Católica (CHI) 29% · La Serena 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad Católica (CHI) | 45.0% | 1.47 | 1.33 | -9.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.26 | 4.75 | -9.8% |
| La Serena | 26.1% | 7.75 | 7.00 | -9.7% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Universidad Católica (CHI) | Draw | La Serena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.33 | 4.33 | 6.25 |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| 888sport | 1.33 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Universidad Católica (CHI) — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Universidad Católica (CHI)Fair line (devig) — Universidad Católica (CHI)
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Universidad Católica (CHI)
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
La Serena
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Universidad Católica (CHI)
La Serena
Primera División - Chile
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Frequently asked questions
When do Universidad Católica (CHI) play La Serena?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 01:00 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Universidad Católica (CHI) v La Serena?
The statistical model prices Universidad Católica (CHI) at 45%, the draw at 29% and La Serena at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Universidad Católica (CHI) v La Serena?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.47 / 5.26 / 7.75 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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