Universidad Católica (CHI) v La Serena PREDICTION
PDC Sun 26 Jul, 01:00 UK · in 11d1X2 · Universidad Católica (CHI)Model behind market recent
Market
1.33
price
75.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.47
fair price
68.0%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 68%model 45%
Model divergence -23 pts
Edge vs fair -9.6%
5 books priced
Model · 1X2
Universidad Católica (CHI)
45%
Draw
29%
La Serena
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 68% / 19% / 13%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Universidad Católica (CHI) 45% against the market’s fair 68% — a -23 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 3°C · rain 0 mm · wind 1.7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Universidad Católica (CHI) 29% · La Serena 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Universidad Católica (CHI)
La Serena
Primera División - Chile
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Frequently asked questions
When do Universidad Católica (CHI) play La Serena?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 01:00 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Universidad Católica (CHI) v La Serena?
The statistical model prices Universidad Católica (CHI) at 45%, the draw at 29% and La Serena at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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