Ñublense v Palestino
PDC1X2 · ÑublenseModel behind market recent
Market
2.55
price
39.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.76
fair price
36.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 36%model 45%
Model divergence +8.8 pts
Edge vs fair -7.7%
5 books priced
Model · 1X2
Ñublense
45%
Draw
29%
Palestino
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 36% / 28% / 36%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Ñublense 45% against the market’s fair 36% — a +8.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Ñublense 29% · Palestino 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ñublense | 45.0% | 2.76 | 2.55 | -7.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.52 | 3.25 | -7.7% |
| Palestino | 26.1% | 2.82 | 2.60 | -7.7% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Ñublense | Draw | Palestino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Paddy Power | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.60 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Ñublense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — ÑublenseFair line (devig) — Ñublense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Ñublense
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | A v O'Higgins | 0-1 | L |
Palestino
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Deportes Santa Cruz | 3-2 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Chile fixtures
Union La Calera v Everton de Viña del MarColo Colo v Deportes LimacheCoquimbo Unido v Universidad de ConcepciónHuachipato v CobresalUniversidad Católica (CHI) v La SerenaAudax Italiano v Universidad de Chile
Frequently asked questions
When do Ñublense play Palestino?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Ñublense v Palestino?
The statistical model prices Ñublense at 45%, the draw at 29% and Palestino at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Ñublense v Palestino?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.76 / 3.52 / 2.82 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.