Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Concepción PREDICTION
PDC Sat 25 Jul, 20:00 UK · in 11d1X2 · Coquimbo UnidoModel behind market recent
Market
1.44
price
69.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.59
fair price
62.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 63%model 45%
Model divergence -17.8 pts
Edge vs fair -9.6%
5 books priced
Model · 1X2
Coquimbo Unido
45%
Draw
29%
Universidad de Concepción
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 63% / 22% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Coquimbo Unido 45% against the market’s fair 63% — a -17.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Coquimbo Unido 29% · Universidad de Concepción 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Coquimbo Unido
Universidad de Concepción
Primera División - Chile
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Frequently asked questions
When do Coquimbo Unido play Universidad de Concepción?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Coquimbo Unido v Universidad de Concepción?
The statistical model prices Coquimbo Unido at 45%, the draw at 29% and Universidad de Concepción at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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