Dundee United v Rangers 
1X2 · Dundee UnitedModel behind market recent
Market
5.75
price
17.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
5.85
fair price
17.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 17%model 45%
Model divergence +27.9 pts
Edge vs fair -1.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Dundee United
45%
Draw
29%
Rangers
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 17% / 21% / 62%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Dundee United 45% against the market’s fair 17% — a +27.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Dundee United 29% · Rangers 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United | 45.0% | 5.85 | 5.75 | -1.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.85 | 4.60 | -5.2% |
| Rangers | 26.1% | 1.61 | 1.55 | -3.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Dundee United | Draw | Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.48 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
| Casumo | 5.75 | 4.35 | 1.49 |
| BoyleSports | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.44 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.48 |
| LeoVegas | 4.95 | 4.25 | 1.50 |
| Grosvenor | 5.75 | 4.35 | 1.49 |
| Betfred (UK) | 5.50 | 4.60 | 1.53 |
| Smarkets | 5.50 | 4.30 | 1.50 |
| Coral | 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.55 |
| Ladbrokes | 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.53 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 5.52 / 4.58 / 1.52 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Dundee United — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Dundee UnitedFair line (devig) — Dundee United
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Dundee United
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
RangersNo archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Premiership - Scotland fixtures
Falkirk F.C. v St MirrenAberdeen v HeartsSt Johnstone v KilmarnockHibernian v MotherwellCeltic v Dundee FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Dundee United play Rangers?
Kick-off is Fri 31 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Premiership - Scotland.
What does the model expect for Dundee United v Rangers?
The statistical model prices Dundee United at 45%, the draw at 29% and Rangers at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Dundee United v Rangers?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 5.85 / 4.85 / 1.61 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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