Aberdeen v Hearts
1X2 · AberdeenModel behind market recent
Market
4.50
price
22.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.85
fair price
20.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 21%model 45%
Model divergence +24.4 pts
Edge vs fair -7.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Aberdeen
45%
Draw
29%
Hearts
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 21% / 24% / 56%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Aberdeen 45% against the market’s fair 21% — a +24.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Aberdeen 30% · Hearts 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 45.0% | 4.85 | 4.50 | -7.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.17 | 4.00 | -4% |
| Hearts | 26.1% | 1.80 | 1.94 | +7.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.70 · Under: 2.08 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Aberdeen | Draw | Hearts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 4.30 | 3.80 | 1.66 |
| 888sport | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.93 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Casumo | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.94 |
| BoyleSports | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.93 |
| LeoVegas | 3.85 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Grosvenor | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.94 |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
| Coral | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.85 |
| Ladbrokes | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.61 / 3.96 / 1.71 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Aberdeen — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — AberdeenFair line (devig) — Aberdeen
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Aberdeen
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Linfield | 2-0 | W |
Hearts
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Premiership - Scotland fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Aberdeen play Hearts?
Kick-off is Sat 1 Aug, 17:30 UK time in the Premiership - Scotland.
What does the model expect for Aberdeen v Hearts?
The statistical model prices Aberdeen at 45%, the draw at 29% and Hearts at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Aberdeen v Hearts?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.85 / 4.17 / 1.80 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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