Falkirk F.C. v St Mirren
1X2 · Falkirk F.C.Model behind market recent
Market
2.05
price
48.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.12
fair price
47.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 47%model 45%
Model divergence -2.2 pts
Edge vs fair -3.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Falkirk F.C.
45%
Draw
29%
St Mirren
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 47% / 27% / 26%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Falkirk F.C. 45% against the market’s fair 47% — a -2.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Falkirk F.C. 29% · St Mirren 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk F.C. | 45.0% | 2.12 | 2.05 | -3.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.77 | 3.75 | -0.6% |
| St Mirren | 26.1% | 3.80 | 3.50 | -7.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 2.08 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Falkirk F.C. | Draw | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.89 | 3.65 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Casumo | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.89 | 3.65 | 3.40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Coral | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.02 / 3.59 / 3.62 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Falkirk F.C. — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Falkirk F.C.Fair line (devig) — Falkirk F.C.
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Falkirk F.C.
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
St Mirren
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Dumbarton | 4-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Premiership - Scotland fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Falkirk F.C. play St Mirren?
Kick-off is Sat 1 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the Premiership - Scotland.
What does the model expect for Falkirk F.C. v St Mirren?
The statistical model prices Falkirk F.C. at 45%, the draw at 29% and St Mirren at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Falkirk F.C. v St Mirren?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.12 / 3.77 / 3.80 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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