Falkirk F.C. v St Mirren PREDICTION
PS Sat 1 Aug, 15:00 UK · in 17d
1X2 · Falkirk F.C.Model behind market recent
Market
2.05
price
48.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.12
fair price
47.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 47%model 45%
Model divergence -2.2 pts
Edge vs fair -3.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Falkirk F.C.
45%
Draw
29%
St Mirren
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 47% / 27% / 26%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Falkirk F.C. 45% against the market’s fair 47% — a -2.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Falkirk F.C. 29% · St Mirren 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Premiership - Scotland fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Falkirk F.C. play St Mirren?
Kick-off is Sat 1 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the Premiership - Scotland.
What does the model expect for Falkirk F.C. v St Mirren?
The statistical model prices Falkirk F.C. at 45%, the draw at 29% and St Mirren at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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