St Johnstone v Kilmarnock
1X2 · St JohnstonePricing inefficiency recent
Market
2.38
price
42.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.28
fair price
43.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 44%model 45%
Model divergence +1.1 pts
Edge vs fair +4.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
St Johnstone
45%
Draw
29%
Kilmarnock
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 44% / 27% / 29%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices St Johnstone 45% against the market’s fair 44% — a +1.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): St Johnstone 30% · Kilmarnock 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone | 45.0% | 2.28 | 2.38 | +4.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.66 | 3.60 | -1.7% |
| Kilmarnock | 26.1% | 3.47 | 3.25 | -6.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.75 · Under: 2.06 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | St Johnstone | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.33 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Casumo | 2.38 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| BoyleSports | 1.95 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.33 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| LeoVegas | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| Grosvenor | 2.38 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Coral | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.17 / 3.49 / 3.30 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · St Johnstone — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — St JohnstoneFair line (devig) — St Johnstone
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
St Johnstone
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Cove Rangers | 4-2 | W |
Kilmarnock
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Premiership - Scotland fixtures
Dundee United v RangersFalkirk F.C. v St MirrenAberdeen v HeartsHibernian v MotherwellCeltic v Dundee FC
Frequently asked questions
When do St Johnstone play Kilmarnock?
Kick-off is Sun 2 Aug, 14:00 UK time in the Premiership - Scotland.
What does the model expect for St Johnstone v Kilmarnock?
The statistical model prices St Johnstone at 45%, the draw at 29% and Kilmarnock at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for St Johnstone v Kilmarnock?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.28 / 3.66 / 3.47 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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