Celtic v Dundee FC
1X2 · CelticModel behind market recent
Market
1.25
price
80.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.29
fair price
77.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 78%model 45%
Model divergence -32.8 pts
Edge vs fair -2.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Celtic
45%
Draw
29%
Dundee FC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 78% / 14% / 9%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Celtic 45% against the market’s fair 78% — a -32.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Celtic 29% · Dundee FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 45.0% | 1.29 | 1.25 | -2.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 7.35 | 7.50 | +2% |
| Dundee FC | 26.1% | 11.63 | 13.00 | +11.8% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Celtic | Draw | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.18 | 6.75 | 9.50 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Casumo | 1.18 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.18 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.18 | 6.75 | 9.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.20 | 6.20 | 9.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.18 | 7.50 | 11.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.22 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.20 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Coral | 1.25 | 6.50 | 10.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.25 | 6.50 | 10.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.21 / 6.91 / 10.91 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Celtic — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CelticFair line (devig) — Celtic
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Celtic
DLLWDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-18 | A v FC Bayern München | 1-1 | D |
| 2025-02-12 | H v FC Bayern München | 1-2 | L |
| 2025-01-29 | A v Aston Villa FC | 2-4 | L |
| 2025-01-22 | H v BSC Young Boys | 1-0 | W |
| 2024-12-10 | A v GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 0-0 | D |
Dundee FC
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Airdrie United | 4-2 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Premiership - Scotland fixtures
Dundee United v RangersFalkirk F.C. v St MirrenAberdeen v HeartsSt Johnstone v KilmarnockHibernian v Motherwell
Frequently asked questions
When do Celtic play Dundee FC?
Kick-off is Mon 3 Aug, 19:30 UK time in the Premiership - Scotland.
What does the model expect for Celtic v Dundee FC?
The statistical model prices Celtic at 45%, the draw at 29% and Dundee FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Celtic v Dundee FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.29 / 7.35 / 11.63 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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