Hibernian v Motherwell
1X2 · HibernianModel behind market recent
Market
2.25
price
44.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.40
fair price
41.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 42%model 45%
Model divergence +3.4 pts
Edge vs fair -6.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Hibernian
45%
Draw
29%
Motherwell
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 42% / 28% / 30%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Hibernian 45% against the market’s fair 42% — a +3.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Hibernian 29% · Motherwell 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian | 45.0% | 2.40 | 2.25 | -6.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.57 | 3.60 | +0.8% |
| Motherwell | 26.1% | 3.29 | 3.15 | -4.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.80 · Under: 2.06 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Hibernian | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.08 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Casumo | 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| BoyleSports | 2.05 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| LeoVegas | 2.18 | 3.25 | 2.95 |
| Grosvenor | 2.12 | 3.55 | 3.15 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Smarkets | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Coral | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.29 / 3.40 / 3.14 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Hibernian — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — HibernianFair line (devig) — Hibernian
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Hibernian
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Motherwell
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Premiership - Scotland fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Hibernian play Motherwell?
Kick-off is Sun 2 Aug, 16:30 UK time in the Premiership - Scotland.
What does the model expect for Hibernian v Motherwell?
The statistical model prices Hibernian at 45%, the draw at 29% and Motherwell at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Hibernian v Motherwell?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.40 / 3.57 / 3.29 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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