St Johnstone v Kilmarnock PREDICTION
PS Sun 2 Aug, 14:00 UK · in 19d
1X2 · St JohnstonePricing inefficiency recent
Market
2.38
price
42.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.28
fair price
43.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 44%model 45%
Model divergence +1.1 pts
Edge vs fair +4.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
St Johnstone
45%
Draw
29%
Kilmarnock
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 44% / 27% / 29%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices St Johnstone 45% against the market’s fair 44% — a +1.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): St Johnstone 30% · Kilmarnock 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Premiership - Scotland fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do St Johnstone play Kilmarnock?
Kick-off is Sun 2 Aug, 14:00 UK time in the Premiership - Scotland.
What does the model expect for St Johnstone v Kilmarnock?
The statistical model prices St Johnstone at 45%, the draw at 29% and Kilmarnock at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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