Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v CA Tigre BA
PDA1X2 · Estudiantes de Río CuartoModel behind market recent
Market
4.20
price
23.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
4.44
fair price
22.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 23%model 43%
Model divergence +20.8 pts
Edge vs fair -5.5%
7 books priced
Model · 1X2
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
43%
Draw
32%
CA Tigre BA
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 23% / 32% / 45%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 43% against the market’s fair 23% — a +20.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 25% · CA Tigre BA 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 43.3% | 4.44 | 4.20 | -5.5% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.09 | 2.90 | -6% |
| CA Tigre BA | 25.2% | 2.22 | 2.10 | -5.3% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | Draw | CA Tigre BA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 3.60 | 2.70 | 1.95 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 4.00 | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| Paddy Power | 4.00 | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| BoyleSports | 4.00 | 2.80 | 2.05 |
| Ladbrokes | 4.00 | 2.90 | 2.10 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.20 | 2.80 | 1.98 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.20 | 2.80 | 1.98 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.24 / 2.94 / 2.11 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Estudiantes de Río CuartoFair line (devig) — Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
CA Tigre BA
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
CA Tigre BA
Primera División - Argentina
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Frequently asked questions
When do Estudiantes de Río Cuarto play CA Tigre BA?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 18:45 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v CA Tigre BA?
The statistical model prices Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at 43%, the draw at 32% and CA Tigre BA at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v CA Tigre BA?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.44 / 3.09 / 2.22 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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