FC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper Zürich
1X2 · FC Lausanne-SportModel behind market recent
Market
1.91
price
52.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.04
fair price
49.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 49%model 45%
Model divergence -4.1 pts
Edge vs fair -6.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Lausanne-Sport
45%
Draw
29%
Grasshopper Zürich
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 49% / 25% / 26%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Lausanne-Sport 45% against the market’s fair 49% — a -4.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Lausanne-Sport 30% · Grasshopper Zürich 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lausanne-Sport | 45.0% | 2.04 | 1.91 | -6.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.02 | 3.75 | -6.6% |
| Grasshopper Zürich | 26.1% | 3.85 | 3.50 | -9% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FC Lausanne-Sport | Draw | Grasshopper Zürich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| 888sport | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| BoyleSports | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Smarkets | 1.90 | 3.35 | 3.45 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.87 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Bet Victor | 1.87 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.93 / 3.81 / 3.65 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Lausanne-Sport — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC Lausanne-SportFair line (devig) — FC Lausanne-Sport
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Lausanne-Sport
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Grasshopper Zürich
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do FC Lausanne-Sport play Grasshopper Zürich?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for FC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper Zürich?
The statistical model prices FC Lausanne-Sport at 45%, the draw at 29% and Grasshopper Zürich at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper Zürich?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.04 / 4.02 / 3.85 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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