Servette v FC Basel
1X2 · ServetteModel behind market recent
Market
2.40
price
41.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.53
fair price
39.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 40%model 45%
Model divergence +5.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5.2%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Servette
45%
Draw
29%
FC Basel
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 40% / 25% / 36%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Servette 45% against the market’s fair 40% — a +5.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Servette 29% · FC Basel 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Servette | 45.0% | 2.53 | 2.40 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.07 | 4.00 | -1.6% |
| FC Basel | 26.1% | 2.79 | 2.62 | -5.9% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Servette | Draw | FC Basel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.62 |
| Sky Bet | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| BoyleSports | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Smarkets | 2.38 | 3.95 | 2.60 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.55 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Bet Victor | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.55 |
| Coral | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.41 / 3.87 / 2.65 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Servette — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — ServetteFair line (devig) — Servette
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
ServetteL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Étoile Carouge | 1-2 | L |
FC Basel
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Swiss Superleague fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Servette play FC Basel?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for Servette v FC Basel?
The statistical model prices Servette at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Basel at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Servette v FC Basel?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.53 / 4.07 / 2.79 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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