FC St Gallen v FC Zurich
1X2 · FC St GallenModel behind market recent
Market
1.66
price
60.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.75
fair price
57.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 57%model 45%
Model divergence -12.2 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC St Gallen
45%
Draw
29%
FC Zurich
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 57% / 23% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC St Gallen 45% against the market’s fair 57% — a -12.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC St Gallen 30% · FC Zurich 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St Gallen | 45.0% | 1.75 | 1.66 | -5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.42 | 4.40 | -0.6% |
| FC Zurich | 26.1% | 4.95 | 4.50 | -9.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FC St Gallen | Draw | FC Zurich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.57 | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.66 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.53 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.50 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.55 | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.57 | 4.33 | 4.40 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Bet Victor | 1.57 | 4.33 | 4.40 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.66 / 4.20 / 4.69 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC St Gallen — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC St GallenFair line (devig) — FC St Gallen
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC St Gallen
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Zurich
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Swiss Superleague fixtures
Servette v FC BaselFC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper ZürichFC Luzern v FC ThunBSC Young Boys v FC SionFC Lugano v FC Vaduz
Frequently asked questions
When do FC St Gallen play FC Zurich?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 15:30 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for FC St Gallen v FC Zurich?
The statistical model prices FC St Gallen at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Zurich at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FC St Gallen v FC Zurich?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.75 / 4.42 / 4.95 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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