FC St Gallen v FC Zurich PREDICTION
SS Sun 26 Jul, 15:30 UK · in 12d
1X2 · FC St GallenModel behind market recent
Market
1.66
price
60.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.75
fair price
57.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 57%model 45%
Model divergence -12.2 pts
Edge vs fair -5%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC St Gallen
45%
Draw
29%
FC Zurich
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 57% / 23% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC St Gallen 45% against the market’s fair 57% — a -12.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC St Gallen 30% · FC Zurich 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Swiss Superleague fixtures
Servette v FC BaselFC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper ZürichFC Luzern v FC ThunBSC Young Boys v FC SionFC Lugano v FC Vaduz
Frequently asked questions
When do FC St Gallen play FC Zurich?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 15:30 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for FC St Gallen v FC Zurich?
The statistical model prices FC St Gallen at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Zurich at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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