FC Lugano v FC Vaduz
1X2 · FC LuganoModel behind market recent
Market
1.48
price
67.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.56
fair price
63.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 64%model 45%
Model divergence -18.9 pts
Edge vs fair -5.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Lugano
45%
Draw
29%
FC Vaduz
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 64% / 21% / 15%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Lugano 45% against the market’s fair 64% — a -18.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Lugano 29% · FC Vaduz 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 45.0% | 1.56 | 1.48 | -5.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.74 | 4.60 | -2.9% |
| FC Vaduz | 26.1% | 6.71 | 6.20 | -7.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FC Lugano | Draw | FC Vaduz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.40 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.48 | 4.30 | 6.20 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.40 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.42 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.75 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Bet Victor | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.48 / 4.48 / 6.34 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Lugano — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC LuganoFair line (devig) — FC Lugano
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Lugano
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Vaduz
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do FC Lugano play FC Vaduz?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 15:30 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for FC Lugano v FC Vaduz?
The statistical model prices FC Lugano at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Vaduz at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FC Lugano v FC Vaduz?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.56 / 4.74 / 6.71 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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