BSC Young Boys v FC Sion
1X2 · BSC Young BoysModel behind market recent
Market
1.91
price
52.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.01
fair price
49.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 50%model 45%
Model divergence -4.8 pts
Edge vs fair -4.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
BSC Young Boys
45%
Draw
29%
FC Sion
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 50% / 24% / 27%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices BSC Young Boys 45% against the market’s fair 50% — a -4.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): BSC Young Boys 29% · FC Sion 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSC Young Boys | 45.0% | 2.01 | 1.91 | -4.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.26 | 4.00 | -6% |
| FC Sion | 26.1% | 3.75 | 3.40 | -9.2% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | BSC Young Boys | Draw | FC Sion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.35 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| 888sport | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.75 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.83 | 3.85 | 3.30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Bet Victor | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.91 / 4.04 / 3.56 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · BSC Young Boys — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BSC Young BoysFair line (devig) — BSC Young Boys
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
BSC Young Boys
LLLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.58 / 2.67
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-29 | H v FK Crvena Zvezda | 0-1 | L |
| 2025-01-22 | A v Celtic FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2024-12-11 | A v VfB Stuttgart | 1-5 | L |
| 2024-11-26 | H v Atalanta BC | 1-6 | L |
| 2024-11-06 | A v FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-2 | L |
FC Sion
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Yverdon Sport | 3-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Swiss Superleague fixtures
Servette v FC BaselFC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper ZürichFC Luzern v FC ThunFC Lugano v FC VaduzFC St Gallen v FC Zurich
Frequently asked questions
When do BSC Young Boys play FC Sion?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 13:00 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for BSC Young Boys v FC Sion?
The statistical model prices BSC Young Boys at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Sion at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for BSC Young Boys v FC Sion?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.01 / 4.26 / 3.75 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.