FC Luzern v FC Thun
1X2 · FC LuzernModel behind market recent
Market
2.25
price
44.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.42
fair price
41.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 45%
Model divergence +3.6 pts
Edge vs fair -6.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Luzern
45%
Draw
29%
FC Thun
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 25% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Luzern 45% against the market’s fair 41% — a +3.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Luzern 29% · FC Thun 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Luzern | 45.0% | 2.42 | 2.25 | -6.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.03 | 4.10 | +1.7% |
| FC Thun | 26.1% | 2.96 | 2.62 | -11.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FC Luzern | Draw | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.22 | 4.10 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| 888sport | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Smarkets | 2.20 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.55 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.55 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| Bet Victor | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.55 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.30 / 3.84 / 2.82 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Luzern — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC LuzernFair line (devig) — FC Luzern
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Luzern
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Thun
LD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Waldhof Mannheim | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-07-11 | H v SV Elversberg | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Swiss Superleague fixtures
Servette v FC BaselFC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper ZürichBSC Young Boys v FC SionFC Lugano v FC VaduzFC St Gallen v FC Zurich
Frequently asked questions
When do FC Luzern play FC Thun?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 19:30 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for FC Luzern v FC Thun?
The statistical model prices FC Luzern at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Thun at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FC Luzern v FC Thun?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.42 / 4.03 / 2.96 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.