FC Luzern v FC Thun PREDICTION
SS Sat 25 Jul, 19:30 UK · in 11d
1X2 · FC LuzernModel behind market recent
Market
2.25
price
44.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.42
fair price
41.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 45%
Model divergence +3.6 pts
Edge vs fair -6.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Luzern
45%
Draw
29%
FC Thun
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 25% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Luzern 45% against the market’s fair 41% — a +3.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Luzern 29% · FC Thun 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Swiss Superleague fixtures
Servette v FC BaselFC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper ZürichBSC Young Boys v FC SionFC Lugano v FC VaduzFC St Gallen v FC Zurich
Frequently asked questions
When do FC Luzern play FC Thun?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 19:30 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for FC Luzern v FC Thun?
The statistical model prices FC Luzern at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Thun at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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