Servette v FC Basel PREDICTION
SS Sat 25 Jul, 17:00 UK · in 11d
1X2 · ServetteModel behind market recent
Market
2.40
price
41.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.53
fair price
39.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 40%model 45%
Model divergence +5.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5.2%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Servette
45%
Draw
29%
FC Basel
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 40% / 25% / 36%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Servette 45% against the market’s fair 40% — a +5.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Servette 29% · FC Basel 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Swiss Superleague fixtures
FC Lausanne-Sport v Grasshopper ZürichFC Luzern v FC ThunBSC Young Boys v FC SionFC Lugano v FC VaduzFC St Gallen v FC Zurich
Frequently asked questions
When do Servette play FC Basel?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Swiss Superleague.
What does the model expect for Servette v FC Basel?
The statistical model prices Servette at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Basel at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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