Gangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FC
1X2 · Gangwon FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.85
price
54.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.93
fair price
51.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 52%model 45%
Model divergence -6.9 pts
Edge vs fair -4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Gangwon FC
45%
Draw
29%
Sangju Sangmu FC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 52% / 26% / 22%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Gangwon FC 45% against the market’s fair 52% — a -6.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Gangwon FC 29% · Sangju Sangmu FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon FC | 45.0% | 1.93 | 1.85 | -4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.82 | 3.50 | -8.3% |
| Sangju Sangmu FC | 26.1% | 4.55 | 4.10 | -9.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.00 · Under: 1.80 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Gangwon FC | Draw | Sangju Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 1.78 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Casumo | 1.78 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Grosvenor | 1.78 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.78 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.84 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.73 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Coral | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.83 / 3.63 / 4.32 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Gangwon FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Gangwon FCFair line (devig) — Gangwon FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Gangwon FC
LD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.5 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | A v Vietnam | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-07-12 | A v FC Seoul | 0-0 | D |
Sangju Sangmu FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FCIncheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai MotorsJeju United FC v Pohang SteelersBucheon FC 1995 v FC SeoulFC Anyang v Gwangju FCJeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Daejeon Citizen
Frequently asked questions
When do Gangwon FC play Sangju Sangmu FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for Gangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FC?
The statistical model prices Gangwon FC at 45%, the draw at 29% and Sangju Sangmu FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Gangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.93 / 3.82 / 4.55 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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