Jeju United FC v Pohang Steelers

KL1 Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK · in 3d Ask the analyst

1X2 · Jeju United FCModel behind market recent

Market

2.88

price

34.7%

implied · incl. margin

Fair · devigged · sharp

3.05

fair price

32.8%

fair prob

Our model

2.22

model fair price

45.0%

model prob · D-C + ELO

market fair 33%model 45%

Model divergence +12.2 pts Edge vs fair -5.5% 12 books priced

Model · 1X2

Jeju United FC

45%

Draw

29%

Pohang Steelers

26%

market fair (devig · sharp): 33% / 30% / 37%

Expected goals (λ)

1.508 — 1.1

Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1

Engine confidence

unscored — outside the engine’s scan window

Model prices Jeju United FC 45% against the market’s fair 33% — a +12.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.

Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Jeju United FC 29% · Pohang Steelers 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.

No grounded brief yet

Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.

Outcome	Model prob	Fair odds (sharp, devigged)	Best price	Edge vs fair
Jeju United FC	45.0%	3.05	2.88	-5.5%
Draw	28.9%	3.30	3.10	-6.1%
Pohang Steelers	26.1%	2.70	2.50	-7.5%

Totals (2.5 goals line)

Over: 2.40 · Under: 1.53 — best captured prices.

Bookmaker board — who holds each price

Book	Jeju United FC	Draw	Pohang Steelers
Virgin Bet	2.75	2.95	2.43
Grosvenor	2.75	2.95	2.43
Casumo	2.75	2.95	2.43
LiveScore Bet	2.75	2.95	2.43
LeoVegas	2.75	3.00	2.40
Unibet (UK)	2.88	3.00	2.50
Betfred (UK)	2.75	3.00	2.50
Smarkets	2.72	2.90	2.38
Paddy Power	2.75	3.00	2.50
Sky Bet	2.60	2.80	2.40
William Hill	2.80	2.90	2.50
Coral	2.75	2.90	2.45

Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.

Sharp reference (raw): 2.91 / 3.15 / 2.58 — the line our fair odds devig from.

Odds movement

1X2 · Jeju United FC — best price vs devigged fair line

Best price — Jeju United FCFair line (devig) — Jeju United FC

Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.

Jeju United FC

Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%

Date	Match	Score
2026-07-12	H v Daejeon Citizen	0-0	D

Pohang Steelers

Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%

Date	Match	Score
2026-07-11	A v Gwangju FC	3-0	W

No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.

All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.

No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.

No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.

Prediction Odds & fair line Head-to-head Jeju United FC Pohang Steelers K League 1

More K League 1 fixtures

Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FC Gangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FC Incheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors Bucheon FC 1995 v FC Seoul FC Anyang v Gwangju FC Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Daejeon Citizen

Frequently asked questions

When do Jeju United FC play Pohang Steelers?

Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.

What does the model expect for Jeju United FC v Pohang Steelers?

The statistical model prices Jeju United FC at 45%, the draw at 29% and Pohang Steelers at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.

What are the fair odds for Jeju United FC v Pohang Steelers?

Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.05 / 3.30 / 2.70 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.

Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.

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