Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FC
1X2 · Daejeon CitizenModel behind market recent
Market
2.38
price
42.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.57
fair price
38.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 39%model 45%
Model divergence +6.1 pts
Edge vs fair -7.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Daejeon Citizen
45%
Draw
29%
Ulsan Hyundai FC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 39% / 28% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Daejeon Citizen 45% against the market’s fair 39% — a +6.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Daejeon Citizen 29% · Ulsan Hyundai FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Citizen | 45.0% | 2.57 | 2.38 | -7.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.64 | 3.40 | -6.5% |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 26.1% | 2.97 | 2.95 | -0.6% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.88 · Under: 1.85 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Daejeon Citizen | Draw | Ulsan Hyundai FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 2.18 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
| Casumo | 2.18 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
| Grosvenor | 2.18 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.18 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Paddy Power | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Smarkets | 2.22 | 3.10 | 2.76 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Coral | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.45 / 3.47 / 2.83 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Daejeon Citizen — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Daejeon CitizenFair line (devig) — Daejeon Citizen
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Daejeon Citizen
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Jeju United FC | 0-0 | D |
Ulsan Hyundai FC
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Jeonbuk Motors | 1-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
Gangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FCIncheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai MotorsJeju United FC v Pohang SteelersBucheon FC 1995 v FC SeoulFC Anyang v Gwangju FCJeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Daejeon Citizen
Frequently asked questions
When do Daejeon Citizen play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FC?
The statistical model prices Daejeon Citizen at 45%, the draw at 29% and Ulsan Hyundai FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.57 / 3.64 / 2.97 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.