Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FC PREDICTION
KL1 Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK · in 3d
1X2 · Daejeon CitizenModel behind market recent
Market
2.38
price
42.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.57
fair price
38.9%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 39%model 45%
Model divergence +6.1 pts
Edge vs fair -7.4%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Daejeon Citizen
45%
Draw
29%
Ulsan Hyundai FC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 39% / 28% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Daejeon Citizen 45% against the market’s fair 39% — a +6.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Daejeon Citizen 29% · Ulsan Hyundai FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
Gangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FCIncheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai MotorsJeju United FC v Pohang SteelersBucheon FC 1995 v FC SeoulFC Anyang v Gwangju FCJeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Daejeon Citizen
Frequently asked questions
When do Daejeon Citizen play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FC?
The statistical model prices Daejeon Citizen at 45%, the draw at 29% and Ulsan Hyundai FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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