FC Anyang v Gwangju FC
1X2 · FC AnyangModel behind market recent
Market
1.62
price
61.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.71
fair price
58.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 59%model 45%
Model divergence -13.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Anyang
45%
Draw
29%
Gwangju FC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 59% / 25% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Anyang 45% against the market’s fair 59% — a -13.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Anyang 30% · Gwangju FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Anyang | 45.0% | 1.71 | 1.62 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.97 | 3.75 | -5.5% |
| Gwangju FC | 26.1% | 6.13 | 5.60 | -8.7% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.10 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FC Anyang | Draw | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor | 1.54 | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.54 | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.54 | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| Casumo | 1.54 | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.55 | 3.65 | 5.20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.58 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.53 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.50 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.53 | 3.50 | 5.20 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Coral | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.62 / 3.76 / 5.80 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Anyang — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC AnyangFair line (devig) — FC Anyang
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC Anyang
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Incheon United | 1-0 | W |
Gwangju FC
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Pohang Steelers | 0-3 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FCGangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FCIncheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai MotorsJeju United FC v Pohang SteelersBucheon FC 1995 v FC SeoulJeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Daejeon Citizen
Frequently asked questions
When do FC Anyang play Gwangju FC?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for FC Anyang v Gwangju FC?
The statistical model prices FC Anyang at 45%, the draw at 29% and Gwangju FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FC Anyang v Gwangju FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.71 / 3.97 / 6.13 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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