FC Anyang v Gwangju FC PREDICTION
KL1 Sun 19 Jul, 11:30 UK · in 4d
1X2 · FC AnyangModel behind market recent
Market
1.62
price
61.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.71
fair price
58.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 59%model 45%
Model divergence -13.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5.2%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Anyang
45%
Draw
29%
Gwangju FC
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 59% / 25% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Anyang 45% against the market’s fair 59% — a -13.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Anyang 30% · Gwangju FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do FC Anyang play Gwangju FC?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for FC Anyang v Gwangju FC?
The statistical model prices FC Anyang at 45%, the draw at 29% and Gwangju FC at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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