Bucheon FC 1995 v FC Seoul
1X2 · Bucheon FC 1995Model behind market recent
Market
4.75
price
21.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
5.15
fair price
19.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 19%model 45%
Model divergence +25.6 pts
Edge vs fair -7.9%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Bucheon FC 1995
45%
Draw
29%
FC Seoul
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 19% / 26% / 54%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Bucheon FC 1995 45% against the market’s fair 19% — a +25.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Bucheon FC 1995 29% · FC Seoul 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucheon FC 1995 | 45.0% | 5.15 | 4.75 | -7.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.79 | 3.50 | -7.6% |
| FC Seoul | 26.1% | 1.85 | 1.75 | -5.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Bucheon FC 1995 | Draw | FC Seoul |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 4.45 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.60 | 3.40 | 1.73 |
| Paddy Power | 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| Sky Bet | 4.20 | 3.20 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
| Coral | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.70 |
| Ladbrokes | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.70 |
| Smarkets | 4.40 | 3.25 | 1.67 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 4.88 / 3.59 / 1.75 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Bucheon FC 1995 — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Bucheon FC 1995Fair line (devig) — Bucheon FC 1995
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Bucheon FC 1995
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-1 | D |
FC Seoul
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Gangwon FC | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FCGangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FCIncheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai MotorsJeju United FC v Pohang SteelersFC Anyang v Gwangju FCJeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Daejeon Citizen
Frequently asked questions
When do Bucheon FC 1995 play FC Seoul?
Kick-off is Sun 19 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for Bucheon FC 1995 v FC Seoul?
The statistical model prices Bucheon FC 1995 at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Seoul at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Bucheon FC 1995 v FC Seoul?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 5.15 / 3.79 / 1.85 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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