Incheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
1X2 · Incheon UnitedModel behind market recent
Market
3.10
price
32.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.32
fair price
30.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 30%model 45%
Model divergence +14.9 pts
Edge vs fair -6.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Incheon United
45%
Draw
29%
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 30% / 30% / 40%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Incheon United 45% against the market’s fair 30% — a +14.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Incheon United 30% · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United | 45.0% | 3.32 | 3.10 | -6.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.36 | 3.15 | -6.1% |
| Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 26.1% | 2.49 | 2.30 | -7.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.10 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Incheon United | Draw | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.12 |
| Grosvenor | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.12 |
| Casumo | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.12 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas | 2.95 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Smarkets | 2.94 | 2.98 | 2.20 |
| Paddy Power | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Sky Bet | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Coral | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.25 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.17 / 3.20 / 2.38 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Incheon United — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Incheon UnitedFair line (devig) — Incheon United
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Incheon United
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v FC Anyang | 0-1 | L |
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
Daejeon Citizen v Ulsan Hyundai FCGangwon FC v Sangju Sangmu FCJeju United FC v Pohang SteelersBucheon FC 1995 v FC SeoulFC Anyang v Gwangju FCJeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Daejeon Citizen
Frequently asked questions
When do Incheon United play Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for Incheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors?
The statistical model prices Incheon United at 45%, the draw at 29% and Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Incheon United v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.32 / 3.36 / 2.49 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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