Jeju United FC v Pohang Steelers PREDICTION
KL1 Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK · in 3d
1X2 · Jeju United FCModel behind market recent
Market
2.88
price
34.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.05
fair price
32.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 33%model 45%
Model divergence +12.2 pts
Edge vs fair -5.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Jeju United FC
45%
Draw
29%
Pohang Steelers
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 33% / 30% / 37%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Jeju United FC 45% against the market’s fair 33% — a +12.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Jeju United FC 29% · Pohang Steelers 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More K League 1 fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Jeju United FC play Pohang Steelers?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 11:30 UK time in the K League 1.
What does the model expect for Jeju United FC v Pohang Steelers?
The statistical model prices Jeju United FC at 45%, the draw at 29% and Pohang Steelers at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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