Grêmio Novorizontino v Criciuma PREDICTION
BSB Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 UK · in 7d
1X2 · Grêmio NovorizontinoModel behind market recent
Market
2.35
price
42.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.52
fair price
39.7%
fair prob
Our model
1.61
model fair price
62.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 40%model 62%
Model divergence +22.5 pts
Edge vs fair -6.7%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Grêmio Novorizontino
62%
Draw
27%
Criciuma
10%
market fair (devig · consensus): 40% / 30% / 30%
Expected goals (λ)
1.56 — 0.5
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Grêmio Novorizontino 62% against the market’s fair 40% — a +22.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.56–0.5 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Grêmio Novorizontino 39% · Criciuma 4% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PEAmérica Mineiro v CearáSão Bernardo v AvaiJuventude v CuiabáLondrina v BotafogoFortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
When do Grêmio Novorizontino play Criciuma?
Kick-off is Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Grêmio Novorizontino v Criciuma?
The statistical model prices Grêmio Novorizontino at 62%, the draw at 27% and Criciuma at 10%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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