Lorient v Toulouse — Ligue 1 - France prediction, odds and analysis
L1·Regular Season - 4·Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 UK·Stade du Moustoir, Lorient· 20.2°C · 10.8 kph wind·Aurelien PetitAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
LorientvToulouse
Sat 12 Sept, 19:45Lorient2.66Smarkets
Draw3.40Betfred (UK)
Toulouse2.84Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 13 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Stade du Moustoir, LorientReferee: Aurelien PetitKickoff weather: 20.2°C · rain 0 mm · wind 10.8 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WWLLDD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.33 / 1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | at Lens (A) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | at Racing Club de Lens (A) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Estac Troyes (H) | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-08-29 | vs ES Troyes AC (H) | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-08-22 | at OGC Nice (A) | 0-0 | D |
LLDLLW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.17 / 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | vs Lille (H) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-09-03 | vs Lille OSC (H) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-08-29 | at Stade Brestois 29 (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-08-22 | vs Lyon (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-15 | vs Hamburger SV (H) | 1-2 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | WLD |
| Toulouse | 17 | 1 | 3 | -3 | LDL |
Lorient: 5 pts behind 1st · 4 pts above 18th
Toulouse: 8 pts behind 1st · 1 pt above 18th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
Partial: Not a verified complete table. expected table size not established for this competition — completeness unverified.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Lorient 0 wins3 drawsToulouse 3avg 2.2 goalsBTTS 83%Over 2.5 in 33%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Toulouse FC v FC Lorient | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-09 | FC Lorient v Toulouse FC | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | FC Lorient v Toulouse FC | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Lorient v Toulouse | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Toulouse FC v FC Lorient | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Toulouse v Lorient | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Lorientsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| B. Fadiga | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Bamba | Missing Fixture | Lacking Match Fitness |
| B. Fadiga | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Bamba | Missing Fixture | Lacking Match Fitness |
| M. Bamba | Missing Fixture | Lacking Match Fitness |
| M. Bamba | Missing Fixture | Lacking Match Fitness |
Toulousesnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| A. Donnum | Missing Fixture | Personal Reasons |
| Y. Gboho | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| A. Francis | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Vossah | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| A. Donnum | Missing Fixture | Personal Reasons |
| Y. Gboho | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| A. Francis | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Vossah | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| A. Donnum | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| A. Francis | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| A. Vossah | Questionable | Injury |
| A. Donnum | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| A. Francis | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| A. Vossah | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Ligue 1 - France fixtures
Rennes v MarseilleStrasbourg v AS MonacoAuxerre v NiceParis FC v LyonLe Havre v AngersLille v Troyes
Frequently asked questions
When do Lorient play Toulouse?
Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 UK time in the Ligue 1 - France.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 13 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.