Manchester United v Manchester City — EPL prediction, odds and analysis
EPLAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Manchester UnitedvManchester City
Sun 13 Sept, 16:30Manchester United3.35Betfair
Draw4.00Betfred (UK)
Manchester City2.18Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Old Trafford, ManchesterKickoff weather: 19.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 1.8 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WWDWWL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.58 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | vs Sabah FA (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-09-10 | vs Sabah FK (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-09-06 | at Everton (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Ipswich (H) | 5-2 | W |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Ipswich Town FC (H) | 5-2 | W |
WWWWWL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.83 / 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | at FC Porto (A) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | vs Coventry (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | vs Coventry City FC (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-08-28 | at Crystal Palace (A) | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-08-23 | vs Bournemouth (H) | 2-1 | W |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 11 | 4 | 3 | +1 | DWL |
| Manchester City | 1 | 9 | 3 | +5 | WWW |
Manchester United: 5 pts behind 1st · 4 pts above 20th
Manchester City: level on points with 1st · 9 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Manchester United 2 wins1 drawManchester City 3avg 2.7 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 67%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Manchester United FC v Manchester City FC | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 2025-09-14 | Manchester City FC v Manchester United FC | 3-0 | Premier League |
| 2025-04-06 | Man United v Man City | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 2024-12-15 | Man City v Man United | 1-2 | Premier League |
| 2024-03-03 | Manchester City FC v Manchester United FC | 3-1 | Premier League |
| 2024-03-03 | Man City v Man United | 3-1 | season-2324 |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Manchester Unitedsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| M. de Ligt | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| T. Heaton | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Mount | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| M. Ugarte | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| A. Diallo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| C. Baleba | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| M. de Ligt | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| T. Heaton | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Mount | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| M. Ugarte | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| A. Diallo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| C. Baleba | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| M. de Ligt | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| T. Heaton | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Mount | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
Manchester Citysnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| J. Doku | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| M. Nunes | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Savinho | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| J. Doku | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| M. Nunes | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Savinho | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| J. Doku | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| M. Nunes | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Savinho | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| J. Doku | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| M. Nunes | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Savinho | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| J. Doku | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| M. Nunes | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Savinho | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More EPL fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Manchester United play Manchester City?
Kick-off is Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 UK time in the EPL.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.