Necaxa v Monterrey
1X2 · MonterreyModel behind market recent
Market
2.40
price
41.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.62
fair price
38.1%
fair prob
Our model
2.70
model fair price
37.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 38%model 37%
Model divergence -1.1 pts
Edge vs fair -8.6%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Necaxa
34%
Draw
29%
Monterrey
37%
market fair (devig · consensus): 36% / 26% / 38%
Expected goals (λ)
1.338 — 1.401
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Monterrey 37% against the market’s fair 38% — a -1.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.338–1.401 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Necaxa 22% · Monterrey 24% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 34.2% | 2.79 | 2.55 | -8.7% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 3.83 | 3.50 | -8.7% |
| Monterrey | 37.0% | 2.62 | 2.40 | -8.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Necaxa | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Paddy Power | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Sky Bet | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Monterrey — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — MonterreyFair line (devig) — Monterrey
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Necaxa
LDDLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Cruz Azul | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-04-23 | H v Guadalajara Chivas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Tigres UANL | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Queretaro | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-04 | H v Mazatlan FC | 2-1 | W |
Monterrey
LWLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | A v Santos Laguna | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Puebla | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | H v Pachuca | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Atlas | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Atl. San Luis | 1-2 | L |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Necaxa v Monterrey | 0-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-08-24 | Monterrey v Necaxa | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-02-02 | Monterrey v Necaxa | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-07-18 | Necaxa v Monterrey | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-04-29 | Necaxa v Monterrey | 2-5 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-11-01 | Monterrey v Necaxa | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Necaxa play Monterrey?
Kick-off is Mon 27 Jul, 00:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Necaxa v Monterrey?
The statistical model prices Necaxa at 34%, the draw at 29% and Monterrey at 37%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Necaxa v Monterrey?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.79 / 3.83 / 2.62 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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