Newells Old Boys v Talleres
PDA1X2 · Newells Old BoysModel behind market recent
Market
2.75
price
36.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.92
fair price
34.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 34%model 43%
Model divergence +9.1 pts
Edge vs fair -5.9%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Newells Old Boys
43%
Draw
32%
Talleres
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 34% / 33% / 32%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Newells Old Boys 43% against the market’s fair 34% — a +9.1 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Newells Old Boys 26% · Talleres 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys | 43.3% | 2.92 | 2.75 | -5.9% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 2.99 | 2.90 | -3.1% |
| Talleres | 25.2% | 3.09 | 2.80 | -9.3% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Newells Old Boys | Draw | Talleres |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.60 |
| Paddy Power | 2.60 | 2.88 | 2.62 |
| BoyleSports | 2.62 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.75 | 2.87 | 2.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.70 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.70 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.79 / 2.86 / 2.94 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Newells Old Boys — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Newells Old BoysFair line (devig) — Newells Old Boys
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Newells Old Boys
DDWDWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | A v Velez Sarsfield | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-26 | H v Instituto | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-18 | A v Union de Santa Fe | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-04-12 | H v San Lorenzo | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-06 | A v Central Cordoba | 3-1 | W |
Talleres
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Argentina fixtures
Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos JuniorsBelgrano de Cordoba v Rosario CentralDefensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del PlataGimnasia Mendoza v Central CórdobaRacing Club v Gimnasia La PlataVelez Sarsfield BA v Instituto de Córdoba
Frequently asked questions
When do Newells Old Boys play Talleres?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 21:00 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Newells Old Boys v Talleres?
The statistical model prices Newells Old Boys at 43%, the draw at 32% and Talleres at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Newells Old Boys v Talleres?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.92 / 2.99 / 3.09 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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