Santos Laguna v Atlas
1X2 · Santos LagunaModel behind market recent
Market
2.20
price
45.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.43
fair price
41.2%
fair prob
Our model
1.95
model fair price
51.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 51%
Model divergence +10.2 pts
Edge vs fair -9.4%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Santos Laguna
51%
Draw
27%
Atlas
22%
market fair (devig · consensus): 41% / 28% / 31%
Expected goals (λ)
1.707 — 1.042
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Santos Laguna 51% against the market’s fair 41% — a +10.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.707–1.042 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Santos Laguna 35% · Atlas 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna | 51.4% | 2.43 | 2.20 | -9.4% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 3.64 | 3.30 | -9.3% |
| Atlas | 21.6% | 3.19 | 2.90 | -9.2% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Santos Laguna | Draw | Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.18 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Sky Bet | 2.10 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Paddy Power | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Santos Laguna — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Santos LagunaFair line (devig) — Santos Laguna
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Santos Laguna
WLLLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | H v Monterrey | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | A v Atl. San Luis | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-04-20 | H v Atlas | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-04-12 | A v Pachuca | 2-4 | L |
| 2026-04-05 | H v Club America | 1-1 | D |
Atlas
LLWDWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.75 / 1.08
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 42%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | A v Cruz Azul | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Cruz Azul | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-04-26 | A v Club America | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-04-23 | H v Tigres UANL | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-04-20 | A v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Santos Laguna v Atlas | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-09-14 | Atlas v Santos Laguna | 2-2 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-02-23 | Santos Laguna v Atlas | 2-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-07-17 | Atlas v Santos Laguna | 1-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-02-05 | Atlas v Santos Laguna | 3-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-07-14 | Santos Laguna v Atlas | 0-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Santos Laguna play Atlas?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 04:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Santos Laguna v Atlas?
The statistical model prices Santos Laguna at 51%, the draw at 27% and Atlas at 22%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Santos Laguna v Atlas?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.43 / 3.64 / 3.19 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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