Wolfsberger AC v Austria Wien
1X2 · Wolfsberger ACModel behind market recent
Market
2.34
price
42.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.47
fair price
40.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 45%
Model divergence +4.5 pts
Edge vs fair -5.2%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
Wolfsberger AC
45%
Draw
29%
Austria Wien
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 27% / 32%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Wolfsberger AC 45% against the market’s fair 41% — a +4.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Wolfsberger AC 30% · Austria Wien 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 45.0% | 2.47 | 2.34 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.65 | 3.40 | -6.8% |
| Austria Wien | 26.1% | 3.12 | 2.96 | -5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Wolfsberger AC | Draw | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.34 | 3.00 | 2.96 |
| Sky Bet | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| BoyleSports | 2.15 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Coral | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.35 / 3.47 / 2.97 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Wolfsberger AC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Wolfsberger ACFair line (devig) — Wolfsberger AC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Wolfsberger AC
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Hradec Králové | 1-1 | D |
Austria Wien
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Wolfsberger AC play Austria Wien?
Kick-off is Sun 2 Aug, 16:00 UK time in the Austrian Football Bundesliga.
What does the model expect for Wolfsberger AC v Austria Wien?
The statistical model prices Wolfsberger AC at 45%, the draw at 29% and Austria Wien at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Wolfsberger AC v Austria Wien?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.47 / 3.65 / 3.12 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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